There have been 13 horses since 1978 that have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes and headed to New York with a chance of winning the Triple Crown, and they all came up short.
Now it is American Pharoah’s turn, and the Bob Baffert trainee is currently the even money betting favorite for the Belmont Stakes on June 6.
We have seen the favorites crash and burn, including California Chrome last year in his bid. Big Brown was bet down to 1-5 and was eased. Smarty Jones got run down by Birdstone at betting odds of 2-5.
In fact, over the last 29 runnings of the Belmont Stakes, only five betting favorites have been successful.
That will lead some horseplayers to look to beat American Pharoah in the Belmont Stakes. Who are the likely upset candidates?
The most likely might be Frosted, who is currently the second choice in early Belmont Stakes wagering at Bovada at 5-1. The colt ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness.
In his Derby effort, the colt was rank in the early stages while near the back of the pack and was the only horse in the field that made up significant ground in the stretch, beaten 3 ¼ lengths at odds of 10-1.
The turning point for him this spring came after his disappointing fourth place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. He was given a throat procedure to help him breath better and he came back with a career best effort winning the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct in his final Derby prep.
The colt is trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won the Belmont Stakes in 2006 with Jazil - who returned his backers $14.40.
Another with a legitimate shot of beating the favorite is Materiality, the current third choice in the early wagering at odds of 15-2.
The Todd Pletcher trainee checked in sixth in the Kentucky Derby and did not have the best of trips. He went into that race with just three starts under his belt including winning the Florida Derby.
The colt is a son of Afleet Alex, who won the 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Pletcher notched a win in the Belmont Stakes in 2007 with the filly Rags to Riches.