The Keeneland fall meeting opens on Friday and the weekend gets off to a great start with nine graded stakes over the first three days of the meet, with seven of the stakes Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.
Saturday’s stakes feature a couple of champions, as both Wise Dan and Groupie Doll will be in action as they make their final start before heading to Santa Anita Park to defend their titles.
Wise Dan is the reigning Horse of the Year and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) champion and is the 2-5 morning line favorite in the $750,000 Shadwell Turf Mile (G1), a race he won last year.
Groupie Doll is the defending champion of the $200,000 Thoroughbred Club of America (G2) and will use that race on Saturday as her final prep before trying to win the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) again on Nov. 2. She is the 3-5 morning line favorite.
Can we beat these two imposing chalks? I am going to take a small stab in each race that we can.
In the TCA I am going to take a small stab with Gypsy Robin, who ships in from the west coast off a win in the restricted CERF over poly at Del Mar going six furlongs. This gal is perfect in three trips over the surface at Keeneland including winning the Raven Run (G2) last fall in a career top effort.
She owns solid early and mid-pace numbers and if she can shake loose early and the poly is kind to speed this gal has the best shot of upsetting the Doll.
In the Shadwell Turf Mile I am going with Winning Prize, who won three Group1 races in Argentina and now makes his second start since coming to the U.S. and landing with the Neil Drysdale barn. The colt came off an eight month layoff with a gate to wire score against $100,000 optional claimers in fast time. The winner up was Chips All In. who came back to win the Eddie D (G3) in his next outing on Sept. 27 at Santa Anita Park.
Now he gets a real class test running into reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan, but he figures to move forward second off the bench and is going to offer more value than the chalk. He draws the rail and needs to avoid getting into an early speed duel, but it will be a lot more fun dropping a few on this guy if we catch most of the 6-1 morning line.
The stakes action on Saturday starts with the $150,000 Woodford (G3) which drew a field of 10 that will go 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Great Mills, who was second in the race last year, is the 3-1 morning line favorite.
The $400,000 First Lady (G1) drew a field of eight fillies and mares led by Dayatthespa (9-5) who is coming off a victory in the state bred Yaddo at Saratoga in her last outing.
One of the most wide open races of the weekend is the $400,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) which drew 14 plus a pair of also-eligbles. The winner earns an automatic starting spot in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).Kendall’s Boy is the lukewarm 4-1 morning line favorite for the Tom Amoss barn.
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