The final two major Kentucky Derby preps are coming up on Saturday, each with 170 points up for grabs in the new points system that will determine the 20 who will make it to the starting gate for the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4.
At Oaklawn Park on Saturday a field of ten will go to the gate in the Grade 1 $1 million Arkansas Derby, while a full field of 14 will compete in the Grade 1 $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass at Keeneland.
Oxbow, the 5-2 second choice on the morning line leads the Arkansas Derby field with 36 points, which currently is good for 13th in the Derby points standings. The D. Wayne Lukas trainee likely has enough points to safely make it to Louisville.
However, for the rest of the field, picking up points (100 for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, and 10 for fourth) is needed to stamp a ticket to Louisville.
Den’s Legacy (6-1) has 20 points, and a top three finish will get him to the big dance for trainer Bob Baffert. The Todd Pletcher trained Overanalyze has ten points, and needs a first or a second place finish. A third would put him at 30 points, which would put him on the bubble.
Falling Sky (10-1), the winner of the Sam F. Davis and third place finisher of the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) comes into the race with 20 points.
The 2-1 morning line favorite for the race is War Academy, who is coming off an impressive victory against first level optional claimers. The colt was fourth in his stakes debut in the San Vicente (G2) back in February and comes into Saturday with no points. If the colt does not land in the exacta, he will not be Derby bound if the race oversubscribes, which at this point seems likely.
In the Blue Grass at Keeneland there is also 170 points up for grabs (100-40-20-10). The points leader in the field is Uncaptured (7-2) with 30 points. A top four finish should get him into the Derby.
Next in line with 22 points is Java’s War (4-1), the Ken McPeek trainee who ran second to the undefeated Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby. West Hills Giant (20-1) has 20 points, Dynamic Sky (10-1) has 13, and Palace Malice (8-1) has 10.
So who do I like in the big Derby preps on Saturday?
Arkansas Derby
Den's Legacy is 0 for 3 this year, but has been in the mix in all three starts and ships back to Hot Springs for another go for the Bob Baffert barn that has been dominant here. The hall of fame barn has won with 14 of the last 23 starts he has sent here and won last year's race with Bodemeister. He also won the Rebel three years in a row from 2010-2012 and won the Southwest in 2010, 20102 (both divisions) and 2013 (with Super Ninety Nine). Last out our top pick checked in third in the Rebel (G2), beaten two lengths for the top spot behind the D. Wayne Lukas duo of Will Take Charge and Oxbow.
Two back he was no match for Flashback, in the Robert B. Lewis (G1), the winner coming back to run a good second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and is now off the Derby Trail. Three back in his three year old debut he ran a good second behind Goldencents, who won the Santa Anita Derby in his last outing. The colt should be sitting a good trip from just off the pace and he has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs. Decent value if he goes off near his 6-1 morning line.
Blue Grass Stakes
Java's War put in a solid effort in his three year old debut last out in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). The colt was outrun early and made a good late rally but was no match for the undefeated Verrazano in the stretch, settling for second at 32-1, 4 1/4 lengths clear of the rest of the field. The winner came back to win the Wood Memorial (G1) in his next outing on April 6.
Both of the colt's wins have come on turf but he did run well in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) here on poly at the fall meeting, checking in third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths for the top spot. He is by war Pass out of a Rainbow Quest mare that won both of her races on turf and has dropped three other winners, top earner stakes placed Coffee Bar ($251,382). Leparoux takes the call and this colt figures to move forward second off the bench for the McPeek barn.
For my full card reports for Aqueduct and Keeneland as well as my Best Plays Report, go to turfnsport.com.